Everybody talks about GM. But nobody is really talking about Ford much. Why not? Well, Ford has $25 billion in cash on hand. It also has $242 billion in assets, about the same amount as its debts. At its current rate of cash burn, it can probably last a couple of years, but it isn't likely to keep burning cash at the current rate, unlike GM. Also, Ford only lost $2.7 billion dollars last year, compared with GM's disastrous loss of $43.3 billion. In other words, with or without a bailout, Ford isn't in imminent danger of failure.
While bankruptcy and possible liquidation may be the only way out for GM, just because Ford is in the same business doesn't mean that it is on life support. Its future prospects look much better than GM's; it is fairly well positioned to weather the coming financial storm. When the economy comes out of its current death spiral and the temporary reprieve from ever-increasing oil prices is over, and gas hits $5 per gallon, Ford will be much closer to being able to compete in the fuel efficient small car market than GM.
That being said, the fact is, Ford isn't exactly a great bargain; it has problems. It is decades behind the rest of the
industry in terms of innovation, and it has some PR problems due to
poor quality in the past, but it is still light years ahead of GM. If I
was investing in an American auto company, Ford would be the one I
would want to own (Actually, Tesla may not be a bad bet, but it isn't a major manufacturer. Yet. Also, it's a private company; it hasn't had an IPO. Yet.).
Here are a few items to think about:
Ford has been embraced by the "Greenies" to some extent, while the half-baked
attempts by GM to make the vastly underpowered "Volt" to placate them has been met
with more scepticism and often downright contempt. it is making some real attempts to produce better, more fuel efficient, more technologically innovative products.
The 2010 Ford Fusion hybrid will operate on electric power until it reaches 47 mph. With decent power and 35 mpg, it should be a fairly attractive hybrid offering at $31,055 MSRP. It won't be the best in the field, but it should have respectable sales figures because it is made by an American company.
http://www.greencar.com/features/fusion-hybrid-paces-nascar/
It probably has a brighter future than the Volt, but I don't expect that it will dominate the industry; it will have some tough competition from the Prius, but Honda's new 45 mpg, $23,550 Civic hybrid will also hurt sales.
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-hybrid/price.aspx
In preparation for the long term, Ford is doing a little research into next-gen technologies: The Ford Edge fuel cell vehicle is actually in
real-world testing, although it currently costs several million dollars each to make them (Ford doesn't have to spend the money to make them, though; they are paid for by us taxpayers, courtesy of the Department Of Energy). The research is still in its early stages, though. An actual production model is expected within the next 20 to 30 years.
Unfortunately, Honda is already selling fuel cell vehicles. This year's Honda FC model is leasing for $600 per month, including full maintenance and collision insurance.
http://automobiles.honda.com/fcx-clarity/?from=fcx.honda.com
Ford Mustangs are among the muscle cars of choice for hobbyists doing total electric conversions. They're building 600 Horse Power, 125 mile range total electric lithium-ion powered Mustangs:
http://www.greencar.com/features/ronaele/
Unfortunately, Ford is still using NiMH batteries for its hybrid offerings; it claims that lithium ion technology is too expensive, unsafe and at least 10 years from being feasible. Meanwhile, Li-Ion are the current battery of choice for hobbyists and competing manufacturers alike. Ford expects to be able to produce a lithium-ion battery that is capable of powering a car within the next two to three decades.
In other words, Ford needs to take a serious look at its research and development department. It may need to clean house and bring in some really smart scientists whose ideas of innovation weren't obsolete when Nixon was president.
On another front, Ford has a very expensive labor force in comparison to its competitors. Foreign companies whose governments pay for health care have much lower costs for those benefits, and, in many cases, hourly wages are much, much lower than in the U.S. However, Obama may institute "fair trade" policies which can be used to offset the difference in wages.
Ford has some real problems. The future for Ford is probably pretty bright, though. A government bailout of GM would mean that it can survive through April before needing another bailout to last through June, then it will need another one, etc., etc.; in the long run, I just don't see an end to GM's problems short of either firing all of its top management, slashing production and becoming a much smalller, more efficient company, or filing for bankruptcy. GM's board will do neither, until it's too late. When GM is either ultimately liquidated and the new owner (s) close down all of the superfluous and unprofitable divisions, or the judge appoints a new management team to trim it down a manageable size, Ford will be in an excellent position to dominate the U.S. auto market, despite the technology gap, the reputation gap, the quality gap and its higher cost of labor in comparison to foreign competition. I would guess that Ford's stock will be above $10 per share within a few years.