If GM falls, we might actually have a boom in domestic auto
manufacturing, as the smaller, more agile companies step up to create a
new, more efficient, more innovative, highly competitive auto industry. Like computers in the 1990s, innovation may mean that people would want to buy a new car because it was vastly superior to last year's model, not just because the head lights were slightly different.
The future is looking increasingly green, electrical and fuel efficient, with no emissions to contribute to greenhouse gases. $4 per gallon gas spurred a wave of innovation and literally dozens of start-up companies with some pretty good ideas.
Here's a list of some of the more promising Zero Emission Vehicles and their manufacturers:
TESLA, a start-up based in California, and ran by some of the creators of Google, PayPal and SpaceX, just received a $40 million loan, and it expects to receive another $250 million in financing next year to build a manufacturing plant in California to begin production of the Model S family sedan, its second line. Its first offering was the Roadster, a high-end luxury muscle car that sells for $109,000. Both the Roadster and Model S have something in common: They don't burn any gas. They are total electric, zero-emission vehicles.
Tesla is well past Tucker's record of 50 cars; as of the first of the month, they had just started production of Roadster #137. Sharp looking cars, too.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3233/3006740292_69dfd2c156_b.jpg
The Tesla Roadster is pretty impressive, 0 to 60 in under 4 seconds, and a 244 mile range at highway speeds, but very few people can afford $109,000 for a high-end sports car. Only 1,250 customers have been willing to pony up the "nominal" $60,000 fee to be put onto the waiting list so far. At the current rate of production of 10 per week, that's only a backlog of a little over 2 years. They are hoping to triple production, in order to shorten the wait time to just one year or less. Even if we could afford a Roadster, most of us don't feel like waiting a week for our new car, much less two years. Besides, it's fun, sleek and sexy, but not very practical for a family.
That's why Tesla plans to introduce the Model S as a production model; they hope to be able to make them as fast as they can sell them:
http://www.roadandtrack.com/article.asp?section_id=10&article_id=7201
This sleek and sexy 4-door family car is all-electric, with a top end over 100 mph, 0 to 60 in less than 6 seconds, has a range of nearly 300 miles, and has been designed by some of the top engineers in the business. It has been compared favorably to the Porsche Panamera.
THINK: Formerly a Ford company. Ford spent over $150 million developing the Think solely as a way to comply with California environmental laws, but abandoned it in 2003, after GM managed to kill the California laws concerning zero-emissions vehicles. The car was never supposed to be anything more than a PR ploy. However, an entrepreneur in Norway named Willums bought it for $15 million, and has received $78 million in investment capital after turning the "horrid" little electric car into something that people would actually want to drive. Located in Norway, and powered by
Tesla Li-Ion batteries, this little economy car just might make the
phrase "Have you driven a Fjord lately" popular. It will cost about
$15,000 and should be available in the U.S. market by 2010. It is expected to have a range of about 125 miles.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2007/08/01/100138830/index.htm
It has also developed a neat little minivan:
http://gas2.org/2008/06/23/thnk-ox-an-electric-car-with-style-and-smarts/
MILES EV:
This American start-up company has received an initial round of financing of $15 million, and expects to receive substantial additional financing once it has completed its safety crash tests. Unfortunately, while the engineering is American, the cars will actually be built in China.
http://www.milesev.com/index.asp#
The unimaginative name "Highway Speed" describes this car pretty well: This car is the opposite of the Tesla; it's NOT sleek or sexy; it is
designed as a reasonably priced alternative for middle-class families. It will cruise at 80 mph and has a range of just over 100 miles. After rebates and tax credits, it will sell for about $30,000, depending on options; it will have a 100,000 mile warranty and should appeal to commuters who need a dependable car to drive to work and run errands every day. A full charge will cost less than $2. The price is still a little steep, but it will probably become cheaper if it sells enough units to get some volume discounts from its suppliers.
MICHELIN: That's right, the tire company. It designed a very innovative electric motor decades ago. Now, a French auto company has decided to build an electric powered car using Michelin technology. The 2012 VENTURI VOLTAGE will travel 199 miles on a charge, and have a top speed of 93 mph, far beyond the speed limit in that country. Don't expect the U.S. to approve them for import anytime soon, though. Also, if you think U.S.wages are high, the Voltage will be assembled in Monaco!
http://www.luxury-insider.com/Current_Affairs/post/2008/10/Venturi-Voltage-EV-Unveiled-in-Paris.aspx
PHOENIX MOTORCARS:
This company is located in California now, but kept the name Phoenix. They produce total electric 4-doored trucks and SUVs. Their vehicles will only travel a little over 100 miles on a charge, though. Also, at about $45,000, they are a little pricey for a pickup truck.
http://www.phoenixmotorcars.com/vehicles/phoenix-sut.php
The really neat item about these is that they can travel over 100 miles on a 10 minute charge. The time required to charge the batteries has been a major reason why people prefer the convenience of a gasoline engine.
CHEVY VOLT:
30 years ago, this car would have been 10 years ahead of its time. Unfortunately, at $40,000 plus options, probably making a fully-equipped model close to $50,000, it's a 4-door compact with the look of a slightly modified Cobalt. It only seats 4, because it has a battery compartment in the middle of the back seat, and with a range of just 40 miles, it's not exactly the king of the hill today. Its small gasoline motor will extend the range to about that of the rest of the pack. However, its 0 to 60 in just under 10 seconds performance at a full charge is distinctly subpar; if it's that slow with a full charge, you can imagine how badly it would perform once the battery is depleted. i haven't seen any data about the top speed. Also, it's really just an overrated gas/electric hybrid, which should really be classified with the Prius and Civic hybrid, NOT a zero-emission vehicle.
Chrysler: Evidently, they think that their "green" customers don't know the difference between a golf cart and a car. I doubt that they will be competitive in the next 50 years.
Ford: Nothing in the works, as far as I know. However, some Mustang enthusiasts have been doing their own total electric conversions, like this 600-hp, 0 to 60 in under 4 secs, 125 mile range powerhouse.
http://www.greencar.com/features/ronaele/
FOREIGN COMPETITION:
BMW: MINI-E:
http://carscoop.blogspot.com/2008/10/mini-all-electric-plug-in-mini-cooper.html
This
is a cute little car. It goes from 0 to 62 in 8.5 seconds and has a
range of 150 miles, both on the low end. It has 204 horsepower, but
the ECM limits it to a top speed of 95 mph. I'm sure that if it
becomes popular, somebody will produce an after-market ECM that will
allow it to bybass that limit. They are currently accepting lease
applications at $850/month.
LIGHTNING: A London company which plans to compete with other high-end corporate commuter cars.
http://www.lightningcarcompany.co.uk/economical.php
A lithium battery manufacturer in China called Thunder-Sky is currently producing 40-passenger commercial buses with a range of over 300 miles at 80 mph. It is entering the electric powered motorcycle and scooter markets. It is considering entering the auto market. As a manufacturer, with low production and labor costs, it could be a real game changer.
THE X-PRIZE:
The X-Prize for space exploration managed to stimulate innovation in that field. Now, it has decided to offer an X-prize for automotive innovation. It is giving away $10 million to the inventor of the best new "green" car technology this time.
http://www.progressiveautoxprize.org/teams
A few examples of the caliber of the competition:
WRIGHTSPEED: the X-1 is 0 to 60 in 3 seconds and tops out at 112 miles per hour in first gear. Probable top end in high gear should be well over 200 mph.
http://www.wrightspeed.com/x1.html
VELOZZI: http://www.velozzi.org/
FISKER: http://www.fiskerautomotive.com/vehicles/features/
FUEL CELL VEHICLES:
HONDA US FCX:
http://automobiles.honda.com/fcx-clarity/?from=fcx.honda.com
The FCX gets 72 MPG and has been in production since 2005.
http://corporate.honda.com/press/article.aspx?id=4651
Honda currently offers the FC for three-year leases at $600 per month, including maintenance and collision insurance.
Honda is playing with some neat concept cars. It is designing some really FAST fuel cell powered vehicles for its next-gen FC technology.
http://carscoop.blogspot.com/2008/11/la-show-honda-fc-sport-fuel-cell-design.html
KIA FCEV:
http://carscoop.blogspot.com/2008/11/la-show-kia-borrego-fcev-with-fuel-cell.html
Kia's fuel cell SUV gets an impressive 54 mpg. For a 5,000 pound SUV, the 0 to 60 in 12 + seconds isn't all that bad. It has a range of over 400 miles.
GM: The 2008 Equinox fuel cell car looks horrible, but it does the job. It did win a few awards despite looking like the Wicked Witch's uglier sister.
http://www.greencar.com/features/vision-award/
FORD currently has a fuel cell model in testing; it claims to be the "world's first", although I don't know what fantasy world it may be talking about. The U.S. Department of Energy is paying the production cost, which is "several million dollars" each. It expects to have a street-ready model in approximately 20 years.
TOYOTA: Like Ford, it's behind the 8-ball, but it does have some pretty far-out ideas.
http://www.toyota.com/concept-vehicles/fines.html
HYBRIDS:
HONDA:
They are producing the CIVIC HYBRID and the 2010 INSIGHT HYBRID appears to be a really great economy car:
TOYOTA: With its 45 mpg fuel economy and leadership position in the hybrid market, I have to mention the PRIUS, even though it is getting a little long in the tooth; the next generation of hybrids will have more power, more distinctive design and even better fuel mileage. Of course, the new Prius will be introduced in less than 2 months, and Toyota may be able to keep its leadership position in the field.
GM: They are offering hybrid models for their larger vehicles, like the Tahoe and Malibu. The Volt will be their first real economy car hybrid, to be launched in 2010 amid great fanfare. The fuel economy and performance of the vehicle AFTER the 40 mile electric charge is exhausted will make or break this one.
When gas rose toward $5 per gallon, many of us who had never even thought about fuel economy before suddenly had to decide whether to fill up the tank or pay the bills. Now that gas is back below $2 per gallon, just twice what we were paying in 2000, we may forget about the idea of buying fuel efficient cars. But the innovation by the start-ups who saw the opportunity to launch new electric and hybrid cars has started a chain reaction that is likely to give us better fuel mileage and lower emissions, whether we want them or not.
The truth is that as long as the dollar remains strong, we will have cheap gas. When the dollar takes a nose dive, like it did from 2002-2008, we pay more for everything that we import, including oil. During this panic, foreign investors have flocked to the dollar for safety, but that won't last; the dollar will be devalued again after the panic is over, and oil prices will rise to new highs.
Our country used to be an industrial powerhouse. Now, we import most of the items that we use every day. We received a short reprieve when our software and computer technology was the best in the world, but that was a fleeting advantage. They are catching up, and even surpassing us in technology. Unless we can rebuild our industrial base, over the long run, the dollar will begin to erode again, and high gas prices will force us to drive either electric, fuel cell or hybrid vehicles. GM, Ford and Chrysler aren't leading the pack in innovation; they are so far behind the leaders that they may never catch up.
Let's hope some of those start-ups can get the financing to build a new, competitive U.S. auto industry out of the ashes of the Big Three. After all, all of them combined could build the factories needed to build their cars for less money than GM will need to make it through the winter.